Stronger economic growth in some major export markets, including
the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and pickup in world trade indicate
that growth in merchandise exports will quicken to about 10%...
and step up again in 2014. Manufacturing industries’ return to full
production will support the increase in exports. Imports are forecast
to increase by 11% this year, accelerating in 2014 when the government
starts the new transport infrastructure projects. The current account is
expected to record small surpluses (Figure 3.30.10).
Risks to this outlook include the challenges discussed below, potential
significant delays affecting infrastructure projects, and capital inflows that
maintain upward pressure on the baht, damaging the competitiveness of
exports. Failure to address weaknesses in education is a longer-term risk
to economic development.
The government is incurring substantial losses from its purchases of
rice from farmers at prices above the international market. Thai rice
inventories were estimated at 15 million tons early in 2013 as overseas
buyers turned to lower-priced rice from India and Viet Nam
(Figure 3.30.11). Losses could exceed the equivalent of 1% of GDP annually.
Source: Asian Development Outlook
database. - http://www.adb.org/countries/thailand/main , CEIC database (accessed 2 April 2013)
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