Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski's formula for World Cup forecast

THE FORMULA EXPLAINED WINNER Every match, i vs i can be forecast by Inputting population (pop), GDP per capita (y) and experience (exp) into a formula to give the expected goal difference (GD) or "edge": GDCH) - 0.137 log (pop(/pop()) +0.145 log (y/yUD) + 0.739 log (exp(i/Cexp()) (+0.657 home advantage when South Africa plays). Figures in the coloured boxes indicate matches likely to be won by each team in the group stage; the formula rarely predicts a draw. Each group's top two teams progress to the knockout, where the same formula is used; GD is shown by the number in black (eg in the semis, Brazil is expected to score 0.39 more goals on average when they play Germany). BRAZIL SERBIA BRAZIL FINAL 0.05 0.39 tAMERO 33 45 20 28 23 GROUP O GROUPE SEMI FINALS ENGLAND GOAL DIFFERENCE O19 Q42 LIO 0.04 - ITALY ** USA N ALGERIA-& SLOVENIA OR 8- PARAGUAY OSLOVAKIA NEW ZEALAND QUARTER FINALS GROUP KOREA REPUBLIC N- BRAZIL *** STAGE PORTUGAL ** ARGENTINA NIGERIA GREECE Ce KOREA DPR 8o CÔTE D'IVOIRE 0.08 и 10 0.02 028 0.28 0.51 LO - SPAIN FRANCE -7 SROUP A 145 HONDURAS FIFA RANKING ROUND OF 1 SOUTH AFRICA CROUP WINS KNOCKOUT STAGE KEY World Cup wins 7. JAPAN GERMANY AUSTRALIA GHANA O CHILE DSWITZERLAND AVABANA MEXICO