Energy intensity trends are hard to predict as they are driven by many factors beyond improved technical efficiency.
The faster decline of energy intensity in the baseline scenario assumes improvemen...
ts supported by changes in industry
structure, slower industrialization in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and productivity gains for non-energy inputs.
This forecast is subject to greater uncertainty than the less
optimistic scenario based on historical trend. Figure 2.1.2
shows the growth of energy consumption under the two
scenarios. Asia’s energy consumption is projected to double
from 2010 to 2035 even under the optimistic baseline scenario.
MTOE = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Lee, Park, and Saunders, forthcoming.
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