---- Consequences for global climate change ----
The damage inflicted by Asia’s projected energy future affects not only the local environment but the global climate. If developing Asia continues ...
to rely on fossil fuels, its energyrelated carbon emissions (ignoring other greenhouse gas emissions) will more than double over the forecast period. By 2035 Asia will contribute nearly half of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (IEA 2012a). The International Energy Agency (IEA) calls the pathway under current worldwide policies unsustainable and emphasizes the need to build an energy pathway to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius
above preindustrial levels, the target agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The World Energy Outlook, published annually by the IEA, refers to three scenarios of energy growth: the current policies scenario, with no change to policies in place; the new policies scenario, which includes countries’ commitments and plans even if specific measures are not yet announced; and the so-called 450 scenario, which the IEA proposes as the threshold for preventing dangerous climate change. The 450 scenario calls for limiting CO2 emissions in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million. Figure 2.1.9 shows that under current forecasts developing Asia alone would emit
more CO2 than is sustainable for the entire world.
----- IEA = International Energy Agency.
Sources: IEA 2012a; Lee, Park, and Saunders, forthcoming
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