However, better international coordination should give countries the confidence not to use export bans and thus maintain more calm than in 2008 and temper price spikes. Lower crude oil prices forecast...
in the next 2 years should dampen food price increases by reducing the costs of major inputs and demand for biofuels, which compete for food crops. Given these projections and the high base in 2012, food prices are forecast to fall in 2013 and 2014. Nevertheless, as low stocks of major grains provide little cushion to fluctuations in supply and demand, small movements in the supply–demand equation may translate into large price adjustments. Indeed, the volatility of key grain commodities in the 2000s has been higher than in the 1990s (Figure A1.24).
--- Note: Volatility is measured as the standard deviations of the logarithmic
changes in monthly average prices at an annual rate. Source: ADB estimates.
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