Economic performance during the first half of FY2012 (ended June 2012) was driven by a rebound from the devastating floods a year earlier that
was partly offset by record power outages from load shedd...
ing in the
second half. Growth strengthened to 3.7% but again remained well below
the 7% pace needed to absorb new workforce entrants (Figure 3.20.1).
Agriculture recovered to grow by 3.1%, as better weather favored the
production of major crops, though minor crops in parts of the country
were hurt by floods. Industry expanded by 3.4%, mainly from post-flood
reconstruction. The impact of the higher load shedding was apparent
as large-scale manufacturing reversed early gains, tapering off to 1.2%
expansion for the year, even lower than the flood-induced slowdown to
1.8% in FY2011. Output of intermediate goods declined for the third year
in a row as Pakistan’s steel, petroleum refining, and fertilizer industries
continue to operate well below capacity. The large service sector, growing
by 4.0%, continued to account for most GDP expansion.
Private consumption expenditure expanded by 11.6% in FY2012
to provide nearly all GDP growth (Figure 3.20.2). As in past years, it
benefited from rising remittances and government salary increases.
Fixed investment fell for the fourth year in a row, to 10.9% of GDP, the
lowest share since 1974 and the lowest among major Asian countries
(Figure 3.20.3). This downdraft is being driven by prevailing security
issues, worsening power shortages, and growing concern over the general
direction and outlook for the economy.
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