Economic growth is forecast to rise gradually to 6.5% in FY2013 and
6.7% in FY2014 (Figure 3.27.5).
Projections assume the government will
maintain momentum on policy reform over the medium term.
owth will get a lift from the European Union’s proposed
reinstatement of preferential access for Myanmar’s exports under the
Generalized System of Preferences and the United States’ suspension
of its ban on imports from Myanmar. Two large gas fields, Shwe and
Zawtika, are expected to come online in FY2013, more than doubling
gas production and raising exports to the PRC and Thailand. Higher
gas exports, greater access to international markets, and faster economic
growth in key markets such as the PRC will support growth in exports.
Visitor arrivals are likely to post further large gains.
Movement toward unifying multiple exchange rates and a managed
float of the currency, along with licensing private banks to engage in
international banking and to offer foreign exchange services, should
shift more foreign exchange from informal to formal markets, increase
liquidity, and facilitate the central bank’s management of the exchange
rate. The government is establishing a formal interbank market and plans
to develop a secondary treasury securities market. A law to modernize
and grant operational autonomy to the central bank has been submitted
to the parliament.
Proposed fiscal reforms include simplifying the tax system, broadening
the tax base, and eventually moving to a value-added tax to ease
dependence on natural resources, which provide 23% of public revenue.
Source : Economic Data - ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ( http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ki/2012/pdf/MYA.pdf )
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