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How targets and actions pledged under the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are interpreted as emission changes under the 450 Delayed Action scenario: 2020 compared to 1990

Table 3.6. How targets and actions pledged under the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are interpreted as emission changes under the 450 Delayed Action scenario: 2020 compared to 1990 Emissions under Region Declared country emissions targets and actions 450 Delayed Action scenario -17% from 2005; no credits from international offsets curently +2.5% from 1990 Canada assumed (5 MtCOze LULUCF credits) Japan -25% from 1990; Korea -30% from business as usual (BAU) -18% from 1990 Japan & Korea (35 MtCOze LULUCF credits) Australia -5% to -25% from 2000; -12% from 1990 Oceania New Zealand -10% to -20% from 1990 (0 MtCOze LULUCF credits) -25% from 1990 Russia -15% to -25% from 1990 (0 MtCOze LULUCF credits) -3.5% from 1990 United States -17% from 2005 (150 MtCOze LULUCF credits) EU27, Liechtenstein and Switzerland -20% to -30% from 1990; Norway -30% to -40% from 1990; Iceland and Monaco -30% from 1990; max. 4 percentage-points credits from international offsets; no LULUCF credits for low pledge -30% from 1990 (195 MtCOze LULUCF credits) EU27 & EFTA Ukraine -20% from 1990; Belarus -5% to -10% from 1990; Croatia -5% from 1990; emissions for other countries in this group without a pledge (incl. Turkey) are assumed to remain at BAU level. -19.5% from 1990 Rest of Europe (25 MtCOze LULUCF credits) -39% from BAU Brazil -36% to -39% from BAU (incl. 775 MtCOze REDD) Carbon intensity -40% to -45% from 2005; share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption 15%; forest coverage +40 min ha & volume +1.3 bln m3 China 4% from BAU -26% from BAU Indonesia Indonesia -26% from BAU (incl. 200 MtCOze REDD) India Carbon intensity -20% to -25% from 2005 -2% from BAU Middle East & Israel -20% from BAU; no pledge for other countries in this group No restriction on emissions Northern Africa -30% from BAU Mexico Mexico -30% from BAU (incl. 115 MtCOze REDD) South Africa South Africa -34% from BAU -25% from BAU Pledges have been made by some countries in this group (incl. Costa Rica, Maldives, Marshall Islands) but not by the major emitters in this group. Rest of the No restriction on emissions world Notes: *The domestic BAU projection used by South Africa has substantially higher emissions than the OECD Baseline projection; therefore the target for South Africa has been adjusted for this difference. The pledges presented here are an interpretation of their main quantitative aspects for the purpose of establishing a stylised modelling scenario. Many countries have provided additional details and nuances in their submissions to the UNFCCC, and often conditions are stated. For full details on the pledges see FCCC/SB/2011/INF.1/Rev.1 and FCCC/AWGLA/2011/INF.1 at www.unfocc.int.

How targets and actions pledged under the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are interpreted as emission changes under the 450 Delayed Action scenario: 2020 compared to 1990

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The implications of achieving the 450 Delayed Action scenario As discussed above, the 450 Delayed Action scenario assumes that until 2020 mitigation efforts will aim to achieve the high end of the ple...

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