How Israel Could Strike Iran's Nuclear Program

SPIN DOCTORS Centrifuges in Iran have steadily increased, says the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Centrifuges separate uranium hexafluoride (UF6) into U-235 – used to fuel nuclear reactors and make bombs depending on the enrichment process. 8,000 BY DATE OF IAEA* INVENTORY 6,000 CENTRIFUGES BEING FED WITH UF6 OTHER CENTRIFUGES (INSTALLED OR BEING INSTALLED) 4,000 2,000 Feb. 17, 2007 May 13 Aug. 19 Nov. 3 Dec. 12 May 7, 2008 Aug. 30 Feb. 1, 2009 May 24 Aug. 28 Feb. 20, 2011 May 14 Aug. 28 Nov. June Aug. 12 Nov. Jan. 31, 2010 Nov. Nov. 16 Nov. 22 BOMB MATERIAL TIMELINE Iran's centrifuge enrichment program starts at Natanz. Iran says the site will produce nuclear fuel for power plants using uranium enriched from 3% to 5% U-235. Iran feeding uranium hexafluoride gas into approximately 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz. Enough uranium material for one bomb. Enough uranium material for two bombs. Enough uranium material for three bombs. - Enough uranium material for four bombs. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 DEADLY ROCKET In June, Iran tested an upgraded version of its Shahab-3 missile, which Iran claims can travel some 2,000 km armed with a 750-1,000 kg warhead (sufficient for a nuclear payload). 16 m ATTACKING IRAN: HOW ISRAEL COULD STRIKE Experts have suggested three possible flight routes for Israeli aircraft, striking three key targets. Uranium Uranium mine processing facility Uranium enrichment facility Research reactor/ research facilities Нeavy- water Facility Possible Israeli strike route ISFAHAN Iran pröduces uranium hexafluoride (UF6) – a gas that can'be enriched to make fuel for. reactors or bombs – at its Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) in Işfahan. From March 2004 through May 2011, Iran produced a total of 371 tons of this material. TURKEY Caspian Sea km 250 Lashkar A'bad IA .......* ARAK :Iraň has pushed forward with its heavy-water production plant at Arak, and with its 40-megawatt heavy-water reactor nearby. The heavy-water plant was inaugurated in August 2006. The IAEA board indefinitely blocked Iran's request for technical project at a meeting in November 2007, over concerns that the reactor could be used to produce plutonium for.weapons. Tehran Qom/Fordow SYRIA Mediterranean Sea Arak Key targets IRAQ Natanz ance for ISRAEL- Isfahan Saghand JORDAN IRAN EGYPT SAUDI Ardekan NATANZ After an intermittent freeze on uranium enrichment that lasted several years, Iran resumed enrichment work in January 2006. Since early 2007, Iran has stepped up enrichment efforts at its underground commercial-scale enrichment plant at Natanz. ARABIA KUWAIT FORDOW Iran has begun moving centrifuges to its new fortified uranium enrichment plant at Fordow, which is intended to produce uranium much closer to the level needed for nuclear weapons. Fordow is shielded heavily against air attack, and will help triple Iran's production of this material. BUSHEHR After years of delay, the light-water power reactór at Bushehr, built by Russia, was connected to Iran's national grid on Sept. 12, 2011. Delivery of the Russian reactor fuel needed for start-up, some 82 tons, was completed in January 2008. Each year, the reactor will also generate spent fuel containing some 250 kg of plutonium - enough to fuel several dozen nuclear weapons after further processing. The spent fuel is scheduled to go back to Russia under a protocol signed in 2005. Bushehr Strait of Hormus Red Sea QATAR Gulf of Отап ATTACKING THE WEST: HOW IRAN COULD RESPOND STOPPING THE OIL Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz by mining, cruise missile strikes, or small boat attacks. The Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf, the canal through which more than 40% of the world's oil is shipped, would be closed and oil prices would soar. THE PROXY PROBLEM In response an attack will draw Iranian missiles and massive rocket volleys by Hezbollah and Hamas, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also may choose to join the fray in an attempt to suppress his country's popular uprising. Iran's allies in Iraq and Afghanistan could launch attacks against U.S. and NATO forces there. MISSILES Last month Iran said it had begun to mass manufacture a domestically developed cruise missile – called Ghader – that reportedly could be used to strike Israel and potentially counter U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf. The missile, with a 200-kilometre range, could “sink giant warships," said Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the Iranian defence minister. The report could not be verified. SUICIDAL Iran has used suicide boat attacks in the past. Last year it unveiled the Bavar-2, a flying boat, which some analysts said could be used as part of a suicide attack. Other press reports last year said Iran had 9,000 speedboats with explosives engineered into their hulls. Suicide bombers could also be used in Western cities. SHAHAB-3 (Meteor-3) 2,000 km SEJIL (Lethal Stone) 2,000 km TONDAR-69 (Thunder-69) FATEH 110 (Conqueror) GHADER Bavar-2 is 150-200 km 150-200 km 200 km SHAHAB-1 TONDAR-69 (Thunder-69) NAZEAT (Removal) 300-500 km 150-200 km 100 km SOURCE: NTI.ORG, THE CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATIOIN STUDIES, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, AFP ANDREW BARR, JONATHON RIVAIT, MIKE FAILLE / NATIONAL POST