Fisher Investments’ Presidential Term Anomaly

Will President Obama's 4th year be good for your portfolio? Historically, the stock market tends to have positive annual returns during a president's term-election year. Negative 19% Positive 81% Percentage of positive and negative annual S&P 500 returns in year four. Timeline of annual S&P 500 Returns during each presidency since 1926. 10% 30% 50% -50% -30% -10% Year President 1925 N/A 1926 1927 Calvin Coolidge 1928 1929 1930 Herbert Hoover 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 Franklin D. Roosevelt 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 Harry S. Truman 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 Dariphtihaunkiom 1954 1955 Dwight Eisenhower 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 John F. Kennedy 1964 1965 1966 Lyndon B. Johnson 1967 1968 1969 Rikal Highn 1970 1971 Richard Nixon | 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Gerald Ford 1977 1978 1979 Jimmy Carter 1980 1981 Ronald Rogen 1982 1983 Ronald Reagan 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 George H. W. Bush 1992 1993 1994 1995 Bill Clinton 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 George W.Bush 2004 2005 2006 2007 | 2008 2009 Breben 2010 2011 Barack Obama | | 2012 -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% How does each year of a president's term tend to behave on average? Negative 36% Negative 48% Positive 52% Positive 64% 1st year 2nd year Negative 10% Negative 19% Positive Positive 90% 81% 3rd year 4th year Percentage of positive and negative annual S&P 500 returns in each year of presidents' terms. What effect can the election have on your portfolio? There are two possible outcomes in 2012: Either President Obama (a Democrat) is re-elected, or a Republican will be newly elected. Historically, stocks have tended to have positive annual returns in either situation. Democrat Republican 14.5% 10.6% Average S&P 500 total annual returns during a re-election year. 18.8% -2.7% Average S&P 500 total annual returns during an initial election year. Source: Global Financial Data, Inc. S&P 500 total return as of 12/31/2010 Thomas Perez FISHER INVESTMENTS"