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Developing Asia’s growing share of GDP and primary energy consumption, 2010–2035
2.1.1 Developing Asia's growing share of GDP and primary energy consumption, 2010–2035 Asia Rest of the world 2010 2035 28% GDP 44% 56% 72% Baseline 51% 49% energy use 34% 66% 56% Less optimistic 44% energy use Sources: IEA 2012a, Lee, Park, and Saunders, forthcomIng.
Developing Asia’s growing share of GDP and primary energy consumption, 2010–2035
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Rapid growth has transformed developing Asia’s presence in the world economy. The region will likely continue to grow rapidly, further weighing, for better or worse, on global developments. Developi...
ng Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will more than quadruple from 2010 to 2035, and by 2050 the region will generate over half of global GDP. This promising vision of Asia’s 21st century is often called the Asian Century growth scenario, articulated in Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century (ADB 2011). Past growth has dramatically improved Asia’s living standards, lifting millions out of poverty. Future growth will do the same. But, crucially, can developing Asia secure the energy it needs to fuel this dramatic economic expansion?
Energy security rests on three pillars: the adequacy and reliability of physical energy supply, environmental sustainability, and affordable access. Where will this energy come from? Can the region expand its energy infrastructure to support its growing needs? Even if the adequate supply of energy is available, will it be environmentally sustainable and widely accessible and affordable? Failure on any of these fronts would hinder efforts to realize the environmentally sustainable, inclusive growth that lies behind the Asian Century ideal.
----- Energy and economic growth. ----
In 2010, Asia contributed 28% of global GDP. If Asia follows the expected growth trajectory, by 2050 its per capita GDP will reach Europe’s current level, and its share of global GDP will nearly double to 52%, making about 3 billion additional Asians affluent (ADB 2011). Asia will already account for 44% of global GDP
by 2035 (Figure 2.1.1).
---- Sources: IEA 2012a, Lee, Park, and Saunders, forthcoming.
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