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Contributions to GDP growth, euro area
--- Recent developments in major industrial economies : Euro area ---The euro area’s output contracted by an estimated 0.6% in 2012. The last quarter of 2012 saw a decline in Germany’s GDP, bu... t there are signs that German industrial production and economic growth have since improved.In any case, the strength of the German economy is offset by weakness in the other large euro area economies, notably France and Italy. The euro area recession is seen extending into the first half of 2013 before slow recovery begins in the second half of the year, with the year as a whole showing contraction by 0.3%. In 2014, the region is expected to continue recovering slowly. Assuming that financial tensions do not intensify further, improvements in external demand during the year could gradually lift the euro area’s exports to support growth. Monetary policy will likely remain accommodative as inflation remains in check, in line with the declining trend in the international commodity prices. GDP growth is projected to pick up to 1.2% in 2014.In Q4 2012, the euro area’s output shrank by 0.6% quarter on quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the third quarter, which was the weakest euro area performance since the slump in Q1 2009. At a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, GDP contracted by 2.3% in the fourth quarter (Figure A1.6).Economic contraction during Q4 2012 accelerated to 0.9% in Italy and 0.8% in Spain. In Germany, fourth-quarter GDP dropped by 0.6% and in France by 0.3%. Most other countries in the euro area saw their economies shrink.Source: Eurostat. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu (accessed 8 March 2013).
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