Cognitive Bias - How Trump Won

How did TRUMP WIN? AMERICAN I LOVE Trump. I НАТЕ Trump. COGNITIVE BIAS & Because I hate trump. Because I love trump. PRECONCEPTIONS led to one of the most controversial and divisive elections in recent history What is COGNITIVE BIAS? Our personal filters cause errors in reasoning, though we attempt to logically evaluate the INNATE FLAWS IN HUMAN JUDGMENT world around us THAT AFFECT HOW These "mental stumbling blocks" can lead us down the path of bad decisionsmaking WE MAKE EVERYDAY DECISIONS What causes COGNITIVE DECISION BIAS? a.k.a., MENTAL SHORTCUTS HEURISTICS Sometimes our mental shortcuts get in the way of rationality Social pressures, emotions, and personal motivations also factor in Being human means we interpret the world through our own likes, dislikes, and experiences, but sometimes our cognitive biases make us highly illogical 6' 3" Superficial Characteristics and 67% 5' 5" Split-second Judgments Can Affect Voters' Decisions of all U.S. presidential elections have been won by the taller candidate 2.3% of Presidential candidates receive more votes on average when listed first on the ballot rather than farther down One study asked participants to compare photos of congressional candidates and then choose which one looked more "competent" 2 out of 3 of participants were able to pick the winner solely by how "competent" he/she looked Politicians know how to play on our cognitive biases-that's their trump card How did cognitive bias HELP TRUMP WIN? PLAYING ON EMOTIONAL APPEALS AFFECT HEURISTIC TENDENCY TO MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON EMOTIONS RATHER THAN FACTS - Capitalized on fear of U.S. economic collapse, unemployment, etc. Trump spoke to Americans about things they felt were true - e.g.,"Make America great again!" UNBIASED Is IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER CONFIRMATION BIAS SEARCHING FOR INFO THAT CONFIRMS OUR PREEXISTING BELIEFS, RATHER THAN INFO THAT CONTRADICTS THEM - Media on both sides interpreted the same events in different ways - Journalists believed they reported the election in an unbiased manner but weren't accurately reflecting the country's views MANY AMERICANS DIDN'T BELIEVE TRUMP COULD WIN OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS PREDISPOSITION TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN ONE'S REASONING THAN IS JUSTIFIED Personal views got in the way of the truth - Journalists didn't question the polling data when it confirmed Trump was falling behind - Reporters didn't talk to enough red state voters FLAWED POLLING DATA MAY HAVE MISREPRESENTED NATIONAL SENTIMENTS SOCIAL DESIRABLE BIAS OVER-REPORTING ONE'S DESIRABLE BEHAVIORS WHILE UNDERREPORTING ONE'S NEGATIVE BEHAVIORS Women could have been reluctant to report they were voting for Trump after misogynistic footage of Trump was revealed AMERICANS WERE READY FOR A POLITICAL OUTSIDER OVERALL IMPRESSION OF SOMEONE'S POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE TRAITS COLORS OUR PERCEPTION OF THEM HALO EFFECT Many Americans believed that Trump's business knowledge would make him a competent President - Trump associated himself with the common man, rather than with other politicians PRESERVING FREEDOM IS PARAMOUNT PSYCHOLOGICAL REACTANCE WHEN SOMEONE TELLS US WHAT TO DO, WE REACT IN THE OPPOSITE MANNER Voting "against Clinton" because she would take away personal freedoms (e.g., gun laws, religious liberty) When the media pointed out Trump's inconsistencies it ignited people's passions even more Donald Trump's YOU DECIDE. win was YUGE but was it because of cognitive bias? CC BY-SA 2.0 by Gage Skidmore Sources: verywell.com/what-is-a-cognitive-bias-2794963 science.sciencemag.org/content/308/5728/1623.full Presented by: businessinsider.comicognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8 nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html iandrinstitute.org/docs/II%20Ballor%200rder%20201512%20ful.pdf nytimes.com/2016/01/26lopinionicampaign-stops/what-voters-want.htm! PSYDPrograms.org DEVELOPED BY NI NOWSOURCING hbr.org/2016/11/blindsided-by-trumps-victory-behavioral-science-e canadianbusiness.com/biogs-and-commentidonald-trump-cognitive-biases psychologytoday.com/blogianxiety-files/201508/why-trump-appeals-people salon.com/2016/I1/27/why-the-pundits-got-the-election-wrong-how-confirmation-bias-shaped-our-view-of-facts e-explains