Asian Development Outlook 2013 : China
- Stable commodity prices will contain inflationary pressures in 2013, leaving the CPI up 3.2% on average, slightly below the government target of 3.5%. How...
ever, higher labor costs and likely rises in food prices can be expected to drive the CPI up to 3.5% in 2014 (Figure 3.9.9).
The outlook is subject to several downside risks. First, in 2013 the economy will remain vulnerable to the sluggish global recovery, which could exacerbate weakness in external demand and hamper exports and employment. The main risk stems from the fragile economic outlook
in the European Union, the PRC’s largest trading partner and the only major market to which PRC exports shrank in 2012 (Figure 3.9.10).
Second, weather-induced food-price volatility, higher labor costs arising from tight market conditions, and planned measures to liberalize administered prices for utilities may generate inflationary pressures, albeit within government targets.
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Source: CEIC Data Company (accessed 14 March 2013 http://www.aseansec.org/
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