Transcribed
Change in world energy-related CO2 and CH4 emissions by policy measure in the 4-for-2°C Scenario
Figure 2.2 Change in world energy-related co, and CH, emissions by policy measure in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario 39 * Other energy- related CH. 37 Upstream oiland gas CH, emissions 35 Energy-related CO, 33 31 29 . 27 Policy measures 4-for-2 °C 45OS 2020 NPS 2010 2020 Notes: Methane emissions are converted to co,-eq using a Global warming Potential of 25. NPS = New Policies Scenario; 4505 = 450 Scenario. ba-oɔ19 Upstream CH, reductions Power generation Energy efficiency Fossil-fuel subsidies
Change in world energy-related CO2 and CH4 emissions by policy measure in the 4-for-2°C Scenario
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----Emissions abatement to 2020 ----
Effective implementation of the proposed policy measures would have a profound impact
on energy-related greenhouse-gas emissions. In the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, em...
issions are
lower by 3.1 Gt (in CO2-eq terms) in 2020, compared with the New Policies Scenario,
although they are still higher than today (Figure 2.2). Energy efficiency makes the largest
contribution to abatement, at 1.5 Gt (or 49%) in 2020.7 Contributions to abatement from
restrictions on subcritical coal-fired power plants are around 640 Mt (21%), the reduction
of methane emissions in upstream oil and gas production at more than 570 Mt (18%) and
the partial phase-out of subsidies to fossil fuels consumed by end-users at more than
360 Mt (12%). In each case, these savings come on top of those assumed in the trajectory
resulting from policies that are already adopted or under consideration by governments
(the New Policies Scenario).
The assumed policy measures go a long way toward closing the gap between expected
emissions levels in 2020 on the basis of present government intentions, as modelled in the
New Policies Scenario, and those required to achieve the 2 °C target (the 450 Scenario).
They avoid 80% of the difference in emissions levels. Nonetheless, a gap of around 770 Mt
still remains, indicating that yet more stringent.
---- Notes: Methane emissions are converted to CO2-eq using a Global Warming Potential of 25. NPS = New
Policies Scenario'450S (450 Scenario).
IEA - Four energy policies can keep the 2 °C climate goal alive
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,38773,en.html
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