Transcribed
Change in world cumulative energy investment by sector in a “delayed” 450 Scenario relative to the 450 Scenario
Figure 3.16 Change in world cumulative energy investment by sector in a "delayed" 450 Scenario relative to the 450 Scenario 1.8 2020-2035 2012-2019 1.2 O Net change 2012-2035 0.6 -0.6 -2 Transport Buildings Industry Power Biofuels Total generation Trillion dollars (2011) Trillion dollars (2011)
Change in world cumulative energy investment by sector in a “delayed” 450 Scenario relative to the 450 Scenario
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Analysis of the entire energy system shows that delaying action on climate change is a false
economy. Investments of around $1.5 trillion are avoided in the period to 2020, but an
additional $5 trilli...
on of investments are required between 2020 and 2035 (Figure 3.16).15
Prior to 2020, investments are notably lower in buildings (around $0.55 trillion) and
industry (around $0.45 trillion). In buildings, the amount of retrofit in existing buildings
is significantly scaled back, while in transport the sales of hybrid and electric cars are
lower in the period before 2020. The industry sector avoids investments before 2020 by
allowing inefficient old infrastructure to continue to operate for a few more years, reducing
investments in more efficient equipment. After 2020, $1.4 trillion of additional investment
is required to retrofit buildings across both OECD and non-OECD countries. In industry,
additional investment of $1.3 trillion is required to finance large-scale replacement by
new equipment, including in furnaces, motors, kilns, steam crackers and boilers. From a
technology perspective, early action can increase the potential for accelerated learning and
reduced costs. However, delaying action could leave open the possibility of breakthroughs
that surpass current technologies.
This analysis shows that, if the international community is serious about acting to limit the
rise in global temperature to 2 °C, delaying further action, even to the end of the current
decade, would result in substantial additional costs in the energy sector. As reffected
throughout this report, it highlights the importance of additional mitigation action in the
period prior to a new global climate agreement coming into effect, to avoid the waste of
creating stranded assets.
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