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Change in energy demand for space heating by region in the New Policies Scenario after accounting for climate change
In 2010, global energy demand for heating was ten times the level for cooling, with OECD countries accounting for around 60% of the total. In the case of energy demand for heating, a New Policies Scen... ario that does not take account of climate change projects a 20% increase to 2035 and 28% by 2050. Once climate change effects are taken into account, energy demand for space heating increases by only 11% to 2035 and 12% to 2050, compared with 2010 levels. In the OECD, energy demand for heating increases only marginally to 2035 and then declines to 2050, ending at a similar level (385 Mtoe) to 2010. Non-OECD countries drive almost all of the global increase, reaching around 260 Mtoe in 2050, with most of the increase occurring by 2035. Looking at the absolute change in energy demand before and after climate effects are taken into account, the largest reductions are in Europe, China and the United States. The largest relative reduction in space heating needs occurs in China (Figure 3.4). Less than 10% of global energy demand for heating is in the form of electricity, with the rest split among fuels, mainly gas.Note: These regions cover almost three-quarters of global energy consumption for space heating.
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