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Change in energy demand and coal-fired power generation from less-efficient plants in the 4°-for-2°C Senarios relative to the New Policies Scenario by selected regions, 2020

Figure 2.8 Change in electricity demand and coal-fired power generation from less-efficient plants in the 4-for-2 °C Scenarios relative to the New Policies Scenario by selected regions, 2020 United European Union States China India ASEAN Lower electricity demand Lower electricity generation from less- efficient coal plants -200 20% 11% -400 -15% 40% Share of total coal generation from less- efficient coal plants (right axis) -12% -600 60% ......... 13% X% Percentage points difference relative to -800 80% the share of less- efficient coal in the New Policies Scenario -1 000 100% TWh

Change in energy demand and coal-fired power generation from less-efficient plants in the 4°-for-2°C Senarios relative to the New Policies Scenario by selected regions, 2020

shared by W.E.R.I on Jul 03

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The extent of the potential reduction in use of inefficient coal plants by region is determined by two main factors: the extent of the reduction of electricity demand (which is achieved through the pr... oposed energy efficiency measures in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario) and the extent of the opportunity to switch to other technologies. The switch in power generation is mostly possible to gas-fired power plants or more efficient coal plants up to 2020, as the additional reliance on nuclear power is constrained by long construction lead times and the New Policies Scenario already embodies rapid growth in renewables, mainly driven by targets in many countries (Box 2.2). The decrease of electricity demand generally provides an opportunity to reduce the use of subcritical coal plants by at least the same amount. The possibility of switching to other, more effcient, technologies depends on several factors, which include the existing capacity mix, the extent of the need for capacity additions, the nature of the support schemes in place, the relative efficiency of the plants available and the construction periods for new plants. For example, in China and in the United States, the reduction of power generation from inefficient coal plants in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario is greater than the reduction in electricity demand, due to the possibility to switch to more efficient coal technologies and gas-fired generation (Figure 2.8). In Europe, on the other hand, the CO2 price assumed in the New Policies Scenario already provides an incentive for higher-efficiency power plants, which limits the scope for additional production from these plants in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, with the result that the fall in the use of coal plants fails to keep pace with the reduction in electricity demand. At a global level, the reduced use of subcritical coal plants combined with the greater use of more efficient coal plants increases the average efficiency of global coal generation by 3.3 percentage points in 2020 in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, relative to 2011. This is more than twice as high as the efficiency gain achieved in the New Policies Scenario, where the average efficiency of the coal power plant feet increases by 1.5 percentage points over the same period.