Transcribed
Average annual GDP Growth by scenario in selected countries, 2012-2020
Figure 2.12 Average annual GDP growth by scenario in selected countries, 2012-2020 8% 4-for-2 °C Scenario New Policies Scenario 6% 4% 2% United European Japan Russia China India Brazil Africa Middle States Union East 1.5% %L'E 7.7% %6 4.1%
Average annual GDP Growth by scenario in selected countries, 2012-2020
shared by W.E.R.I on Jul 08
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---- Implications for the global economy ----
The policy package suggested in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario does not affect global and regional
growth of GDP to 2020. GDP grows globally at 4.1% per year ...
between 2012 and 2020,
representing annual average growth of 2.2% and 6.0% in OECD and non-OECD countries
respectively.20 This neutral impact on GDP results from the combined implementation
of the four policies that are assumed to be adopted and from relative price adjustments
across all commodities, goods and services. In the period post-2020, however, the adopted
policy measures foster economic growth, as investments in the programme are increasingly
outweighed by fuel bill savings and resources get allocated more efficiently across the
entire economy.21
Energy prices in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario are lower than in the New Policies Scenario: oil
prices increase to $116 per barrel in 2020, or $4/barrel lower than in the New Policies
Scenario, before declining in 2035 to $109/barrel, which is $16/barrel lower than in the
New Policies Scenario.22 Natural gas prices are lower in importing regions such as Europe or
Japan. OECD steam coal prices reach $100/tonne in 2035, $15/tonne lower than in the New
Policies Scenario. The activity level of each sector in each country is boosted or reduced,
depending on the specific policies to which they are exposed (Figure 2.12).
Source
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