Asian countries' energy self-sufficiency, 2035
In addition to oil supply disruptions, threats to supply
adequacy arise from potential interruptions of electricity
and gas supply. Unreliable electric and gas systems can
leave households without power and stymie industrial
and commercial activity, causing heavy losses. India has
experienced serious inte...
rruptions to electricity supply, with the
July 2012 blackout in India affecting some 670 million people.
In 2009, a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over pricing
and transit costs for Russia’s gas prompted Russia to cut off
all gas supplies to and passing through Ukraine, imposing
wintertime supply disruptions on 18 European countries—and
this dispute remains unresolved.
By 2035, most Asian countries will produce less than half
the energy they need, and many will produce only a tiny
fraction. This means that Asia will remain heavily dependent on
energy imports, in particular of oil, for the foreseeable future.
More generally, securing adequate and reliable energy supply
will persist as a difficult challenge across the region.
Figure 2.1.7 ranks Asian economies according to an index
of energy self-sufficiency, in which a value of 1 indicates all
primary energy demand is met with indigenous resources and
a value of 0 indicates complete reliance on energy imports.
The index is calculated based on each country’s projected
primary energy mix until 2035 (e.g., how much it will use coal
to generate electricity), its current proved indigenous reserves
of fossil fuel, and its projected consumption until 2035 (Fueyo,
Gómez, and Dopazo, forthcoming).
Only three countries in developing Asia—Azerbaijan,
Brunei Darussalam, and Kazakhstan—are energy self-sufficient.
Some economies have minimal self-sufficiency. Singapore and
Hong Kong, China both have high demand for fossil fuels but
no supply. As their energy sources were entirely imported even
in 2010, their situation will change little by 2035. The Republic
of Korea has limited fuel reserves—some coal and nuclear fuels,
the latter perhaps largely uranium processed from imports. In 2010, the Republic of Korea imported about 80% of its primary energy (IEA 2012a). Indigenous reserves will be depleted by 2035. The share of hydropower is negligible at 0.02% of primary
energy consumption, and other renewables’ share is only 2.1%.
Japan’s trends for economic growth and energy demand are unique in Asia, reflecting its economic maturity. Its GDP will grow very slowly between 2010 and 2035. Its primary energy consumption will fall by 15%, but hydropower’s share of primary energy will remain more or less constant at 1.5%, while that of other renewables will rise substantially from 2.1% to 15.7%.
------- PRC = People’s Republic of China, PDR = people’s democratic republic.
-------- Note: The self-sufficiency index formula accounts for the share of renewable
resources projected to be available, projected demand for conventional
fuels, and corresponding depletion of conventional fuels given the country’s
---- Source: Fueyo, Gomez, and Dopazo, forthcoming.